PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Clockwerksignature
fy · 20 games
Tinyoften banned
fy · 17 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
天命 · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 13 games
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 12 games
Snapfire
fy · 12 games
Infinity Esports
Hoodwinkoften banned
Kiri · 8 games
Techies
Hyko · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 6 games
Marcisignature
Yor · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
Underlordoften banned
kendallx · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Genek · 5 games
Jakiro
Gardick · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
344 picks · 282 bans
Jakiro
342 picks · 255 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 440 bans
Hoodwink
310 picks · 349 bans
Rubick
308 picks · 301 bans
Windranger
303 picks · 436 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 516 bans
Dragon Knight
300 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:13
Azure Ray 59%Infinity Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordlou
GyrocopterCostabile
Timbersawniu
Dragon KnightPiPi
MedusapLAnet
Night StalkerILICH-
Shadow DemonFantasy
DisruptorPanda
Game 2prediction missed16:27
Azure Ray 58%Infinity Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordlou
LunaCostabile
Underlordniu
PuckPiPi
MiranapLAnet
BrewmasterILICH-
ClockwerkFantasy
OmniknightPanda
Game 3prediction correct44:13
Azure Ray 57%Infinity Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razorlou
LunaCostabile
Pangolierniu
Sand KingILICH-
HoodwinkpLAnet
Dragon KnightPiPi
Elder TitanFantasy
ClockwerkPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 65%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3