DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Apex Genesisloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
Clockwerk
Skem · 12 games
Tusksignature
Hellscream · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
Apex Genesis
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 10 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
YamSun · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Speeed · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
348 picks · 257 bans
Snapfire
342 picks · 280 bans
Pangolier
332 picks · 444 bans
Hoodwink
316 picks · 360 bans
Rubick
313 picks · 307 bans
Windranger
307 picks · 437 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 518 bans
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total71% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:27
Shopify Rebellion 61%Apex Genesis 39%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetTimado
BristlebackSammyboy
TinyYopaj
BeastmasterFayde
Visagemangekyou
InvokerW1sh-
ChenSkem
EnchantressYamSun
BatriderHellscream
Dark WillowBignum
Game 2prediction correct36:23
Shopify Rebellion 60%Apex Genesis 40%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 41:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetTimado
WindrangerSammyboy
Timbersawmangekyou
BeastmasterFayde
TinyYopaj
InvokerW1sh-
Crystal MaidenSkem
SnapfireBignum
Dark WillowHellscream
Treant ProtectorYamSun
Game 3prediction correct43:30
Shopify Rebellion 61%Apex Genesis 39%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 42:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetTimado
BristlebackSammyboy
Timbersawmangekyou
BeastmasterFayde
TinyYopaj
InvokerW1sh-
ClockwerkSkem
Crystal MaidenYamSun
Shadow DemonHellscream
Dark WillowBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 71%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3