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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Palianytsiawin 2:0
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Palianytsia

Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
QBFY · 7 games
86%
Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 7 games
86%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 7 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 6 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
kreker · 6 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 5 games
20%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 25 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 21 game
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 21 game
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 21 game
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
342 picks · 280 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 449 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 365 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
315 picks · 308 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
307 picks · 436 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 520 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
300 picks · 486 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Palianytsia
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:18
Palianytsia 33%OG 67%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallize
45% · 116 games46% · 94 games
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Sand King
Sand KingMoonlight
54% · 61 game52% · 118 games
SniperNine
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
45% · 169 games51% · 137 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Leshrac
LeshracQBFY
52% · 61 game50% · 67 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
Clockwerkkreker
51% · 112 games55% · 103 games
ChenCeb
Chen
Game 2prediction missed47:20
Palianytsia 31%OG 69%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 51:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingfortniteMan
52% · 103 games51% · 161 game
Luna23savage
Luna
Bristleback
BristlebackCrystallize
43% · 90 games55% · 84 games
Monkey KingNine
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoonlight
47% · 95 games52% · 172 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Lion
Lionkreker
57% · 249 games57% · 181 game
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
47% · 221 game41% · 160 games
TuskCeb
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 83%
Series resultPalianytsia 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2