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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 25 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 21 game
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 19 games
53%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 36 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
pma · 22 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Daze · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 279 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 453 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
318 picks · 365 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
316 picks · 312 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
308 picks · 432 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
303 picks · 520 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 483 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total77% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:20
OG 65%Natus Vincere Junior 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 45:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windranger23savage
53% · 224 games43% · 138 games
Svengotthejuice
Sven
Bristleback
BristlebackWisper
53% · 71 game51% · 98 games
Sand KingNiku
Sand King
Invoker
InvokerNine
61% · 130 games46% · 131 game
Kunkkapma
Kunkka
Chen
ChenCeb
54% · 100 games38% · 86 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
54% · 52 games45% · 124 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed18:30
OG 65%Natus Vincere Junior 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 45:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Luna23savage
53% · 131 game55% · 77 games
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerNine
54% · 112 games48% · 80 games
Sand Kingpma
Sand King
Mars
MarsWisper
48% · 128 games46% · 18 games
HuskarNiku
Huskar
Omniknight
OmniknightCeb
50% · 31 game44% · 132 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
48% · 44 games52% · 139 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct22:5
OG 64%Natus Vincere Junior 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 24:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist23savage
49% · 148 games55% · 76 games
Sand Kingpma
Sand King
Sniper
SniperNine
48% · 107 games55% · 81 game
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Monkey King
Magnus
MagnusWisper
57% · 130 games44% · 231 game
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
50% · 69 games47% · 130 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCeb
50% · 240 games48% · 176 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 77%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3