DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 3:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team Zeroloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Clockwerk
fy · 19 games
Tinyoften banned
fy · 17 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
天命 · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 12 games
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 12 games
Snapfire
fy · 12 games
Team Zero
Clockwerk
zzq · 15 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
7e · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 12 games
Windrangersignature
poyoyo · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
BEYOND · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
BEYOND · 11 games
Miranasignature
poyoyo · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
BEYOND · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 279 bans
Pangolier
328 picks · 454 bans
Rubick
317 picks · 312 bans
Hoodwink
315 picks · 364 bans
Windranger
307 picks · 428 bans
Enchantress
303 picks · 516 bans
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 480 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Team Zero
Head-to-head11 – 1
Model total57% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:28
Azure Ray 54%Team Zero 46%
The model gave 54% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Zero in 26:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linalou
Lunapoyoyo
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Slardar7e
MedusapLAnet
DoomBEYOND
TuskFantasy
HoodwinkPyw
54% · 109 games
Naga Sirenzzq
Game 2prediction missed12:21
Azure Ray 53%Team Zero 47%
The model gave 53% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Zero in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightlou
Broodmotherpoyoyo
Bristlebackniu
Earth Spirit7e
BatriderFantasy
PangolierBEYOND
TuskpLAnet
Miranazzq
55% · 226 games
HoodwinkPyw
Game 3prediction correct31:13
Azure Ray 52%Team Zero 48%
The model gave 52% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunalou
Weaverpoyoyo
Night Stalkerniu
DoomBEYOND
Shadow DemonpLAnet
Monkey King7e
ClockwerkFantasy
LionPyw
60% · 51 game
Bristlebackzzq
Game 4prediction correct23:4
Azure Ray 54%Team Zero 46%
The model gave 54% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunalou
Broodmotherpoyoyo
Kunkkaniu
Keeper of the Light7e
MedusapLAnet
DoomBEYOND
TuskFantasy
Tinkerzzq
70% · 18 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Game 5prediction correct32:11
Azure Ray 54%Team Zero 46%
The model gave 54% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistlou
Lunapoyoyo
Kunkkaniu
Slardar7e
GrimstrokepLAnet
PangolierBEYOND
TuskFantasy
HoodwinkPyw
52% · 126 games
Treant Protectorzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 57%
Series resultAzure Ray 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5