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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 3:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 16 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 13 games
77%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
45%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Ws · 10 games
60%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Akashi · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 10 games
70%

Aurora Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 9 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
23savage · 9 games
44%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 7 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 279 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 454 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 312 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 364 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
307 picks · 428 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
303 picks · 516 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 480 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total52% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:22
Talon Esports 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaAkashi
46% · 143 games58% · 41 game
Lone DruidTA2000
Lone Druid
Kunkka
KunkkaMikoto
46% · 229 games57% · 118 games
InvokerAbed
Invoker
Underlord
UnderlordWs
49% · 77 games54% · 248 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJhocam
40% · 166 games48% · 261 game
TuskQ
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKuku
50% · 201 game53% · 148 games
SniperKaori
Sniper
Game 2prediction missed32:10
Talon Esports 47%Aurora Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerAkashi
47% · 207 games49% · 269 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
45% · 142 games56% · 153 games
Nature's ProphetTA2000
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaWs
50% · 176 games54% · 84 games
UnderlordJabz
Underlord
Marci
MarciKuku
46% · 79 games46% · 301 game
HoodwinkQ
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderJhocam
48% · 257 games61% · 54 games
OmniknightKaori
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct19:9
Talon Esports 51%Aurora Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAkashi
53% · 256 games47% · 41 game
MeepoTA2000
Meepo
Puck
PuckMikoto
56% · 197 games46% · 312 games
Dragon KnightAbed
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomWs
57% · 213 games51% · 263 games
KunkkaJabz
Kunkka
Sniper
SniperJhocam
50% · 132 games46% · 179 games
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKuku
49% · 215 games46% · 218 games
MiranaKaori
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 52%
Series resultTalon Esports 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3