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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 9 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
23savage · 9 games
44%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 7 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 21 game
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 19 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 19 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 18 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 18 games
39%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Matthew · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 279 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 454 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 312 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 364 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 426 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 515 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 477 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:5
Aurora Gaming 58%BOOM Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoTA2000
44% · 58 games53% · 169 games
AlchemistGhost
Alchemist
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAbed
47% · 186 games55% · 241 game
DoomFbz
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
52% · 438 games53% · 358 games
PangolierMac
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
49% · 323 games49% · 298 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQ
50% · 310 games45% · 249 games
TuskDJ
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct29:18
Aurora Gaming 56%BOOM Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoTA2000
49% · 45 games39% · 74 games
SvenGhost
Sven
Invoker
InvokerAbed
57% · 114 games56% · 105 games
TimbersawFbz
Timbersaw
Bristleback
BristlebackJabz
52% · 80 games54% · 131 game
Primal BeastMac
Primal Beast
Tusk
TuskQ
38% · 182 games47% · 143 games
EnchantressDJ
Enchantress
Sniper
SniperKaori
53% · 115 games56% · 83 games
LionTims
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 67%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2