DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Clockwerk
Scofield · 24 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 22 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Scofield · 21 game
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Snapfire
Scofield · 16 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 278 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 454 bans
Rubick
317 picks · 312 bans
Hoodwink
313 picks · 364 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 426 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 515 bans
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 477 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Heroic
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total63% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:10
Heroic 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 44:02.
Game 2prediction correct24:11
Heroic 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 63%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2