DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Dark Willow
Bignum · 9 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
YamSun · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Speeed · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 7 games
GRIN esports
Dark Seeroften banned
Moo · 3 games
Axe
Moo · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Moo · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moo · 1 game
Legion Commander
Moo · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Moo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 278 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 451 bans
Rubick
317 picks · 311 bans
Hoodwink
313 picks · 364 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 424 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 512 bans
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 475 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total75% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:16
Apex Genesis 75%GRIN esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 35:44.
Game 2prediction correct26:8
Apex Genesis 75%GRIN esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 23:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 75%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2