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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
WINTRADERswin 2:0
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cuyes Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

WINTRADERs

Magnus
Magnus
kendallx · 2 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Alone · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mjz · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Genek · 1 game
100%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
100%
Mirana
Mirana
Genek · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Genek · 1 game
100%

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 10 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Mjz · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 6 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panda · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 277 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 452 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
318 picks · 311 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 365 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 423 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 472 bans
46%
Enchantress
Enchantress
299 picks · 513 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% WINTRADERs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:2
WINTRADERs 34%Cuyes Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by WINTRADERs in 26:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistDaaD-
39% · 79 games56% · 85 games
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingAlone
45% · 67 games55% · 22 games
Lone DruidCostabile
Lone Druid
Visage
Visagekendallx
53% · 34 games49% · 110 games
MarsILICH-
Mars
Oracle
OracleMjz
54% · 18 games59% · 90 games
Naga SirenPanda
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskGenek
45% · 109 games
Game 2prediction missed29:34
WINTRADERs 35%Cuyes Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by WINTRADERs in 54:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaDaaD-
52% · 98 games53% · 282 games
WeaverCostabile
Weaver
Zeus
ZeusAlone
44% · 51 game48% · 80 games
Queen of PainPiPi
Queen of Pain
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkendallx
42% · 118 games46% · 60 games
VisageILICH-
Visage
Batrider
BatriderGenek
47% · 128 games58% · 120 games
Treant ProtectorPanda
Treant Protector
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMjz
54% · 147 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 76%
Series resultWINTRADERs 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2