DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fart Studiosloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GRIN esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Jenkins · 1 game
Dark Willow
Newsham · 1 game
Elder Titan
SVG · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Jenkins · 1 game
Linaoften banned
YawaR · 1 game
Pudge
SVG · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
iAnnihilate · 1 game
Snapfire
Newsham · 1 game
GRIN esports
Dark Seeroften banned
Moo · 3 games
Axe
Moo · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Moo · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moo · 1 game
Legion Commander
Moo · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Moo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 277 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 452 bans
Rubick
318 picks · 311 bans
Hoodwink
313 picks · 365 bans
Windranger
304 picks · 422 bans
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 471 bans
Enchantress
298 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
Fart Studios 48%GRIN esports 52%
The model gave 52% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 28:53.
Game 2prediction correct12:47
Fart Studios 48%GRIN esports 52%
The model gave 52% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 23:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 52%
Series resultGRIN esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2