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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Palianytsialoss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Palianytsia

Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 7 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
QBFY · 6 games
83%
Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 6 games
83%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
kreker · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
kreker · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 4 games
75%

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 16 games
81%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 13 games
85%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 11 games
82%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
64%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
SoNNeikO · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 277 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 452 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
319 picks · 311 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 365 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
304 picks · 424 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 470 bans
46%
Enchantress
Enchantress
297 picks · 514 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 68%
Hero pool strength56% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:27
Palianytsia 34%AVULUS 66%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallize
60% · 87 games47% · 136 games
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Nature's Prophet
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoonlight
42% · 92 games45% · 42 games
Queen of PainStormstormer
Queen of Pain
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
49% · 402 games46% · 299 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Alchemist
Alchemistkreker
57% · 134 games54% · 278 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
49% · 252 games49% · 212 games
TuskSoNNeikO
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed43:7
Palianytsia 36%AVULUS 64%
The model gave 64% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallize
53% · 188 games50% · 57 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
50% · 115 games49% · 12 games
HuskarStormstormer
Huskar
Timbersaw
TimbersawfortniteMan
48% · 166 games52% · 74 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
52% · 71 game49% · 212 games
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Enchantress
Omniknight
Omniknightkreker
58% · 46 games42% · 231 game
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct18:31
Palianytsia 34%AVULUS 66%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallize
47% · 271 game58% · 83 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoonlight
54% · 73 games53% · 210 games
Storm SpiritStormstormer
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
49% · 342 games49% · 399 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Tusk
Tuskkreker
45% · 172 games53% · 140 games
SniperEkki
Sniper
Batrider
BatriderQBFY
48% · 312 games47% · 338 games
Crystal MaidenSoNNeikO
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 77%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3