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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
drago kingsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 17 games
76%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 16 games
88%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
GH · 14 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 12 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 11 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
SumaiL · 10 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 10 games
40%

drago kings

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 1 game
100%
Necrophos
Necrophos
Panda · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 276 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 453 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
320 picks · 311 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
316 picks · 366 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
304 picks · 425 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 469 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
296 picks · 514 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% drago kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:15
Nigma Galaxy 77%drago kings 23%
The model gave 77% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 21:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMiracle-
57% · 3 games55% · 86 games
InvokerPanda
Invoker
Sniper
SniperSumaiL
50% · 12 games
Mars
MarsNo!ob
43% · 24 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
30% · 26 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
56% · 21 game
Game 2prediction correct34:17
Nigma Galaxy 78%drago kings 22%
The model gave 78% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 24:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
43% · 17 games51% · 70 games
Queen of PainPanda
Queen of Pain
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMiracle-
54% · 9 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNo!ob
53% · 13 games
Alchemist
AlchemistOmaR
69% · 9 games
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
38% · 22 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 92%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2