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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 12 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Batyuk · 9 games
22%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 8 games
13%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 24 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 21 game
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 20 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 19 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 275 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 453 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
320 picks · 310 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
314 picks · 366 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
304 picks · 421 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 469 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
294 picks · 514 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 49%
Hero pool strength58% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:9
Passion UA 33%OG 67%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by Passion UA in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckniche
52% · 200 games50% · 118 games
Nature's Prophet23savage
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
50% · 256 games47% · 215 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Mirana
MiranaFernans
49% · 133 games49% · 12 games
RikiNine
Riki
Clockwerk
Clockwerkflacko
45% · 166 games49% · 294 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
59% · 116 games
Treant ProtectorCeb
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct26:43
Passion UA 30%OG 70%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 49:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
49% · 185 games55% · 129 games
Nature's ProphetNine
Nature's Prophet
Invoker
Invokerniche
50% · 113 games52% · 110 games
Monkey King23savage
Monkey King
Enchantress
EnchantressFernans
41% · 217 games53% · 75 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Marci
Marciflacko
50% · 74 games47% · 207 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
56% · 68 games
Naga SirenCeb
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction correct12:24
Passion UA 33%OG 67%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerniche
51% · 106 games50% · 171 game
Luna23savage
Luna
Bristleback
BristlebackBatyuk
53% · 77 games42% · 59 games
ZeusNine
Zeus
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
44% · 308 games52% · 205 games
Primal BeastWisper
Primal Beast
Enchantress
Enchantressflacko
47% · 247 games59% · 95 games
Naga SirenCeb
Naga Siren
49% · 208 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 81%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3