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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 35 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 26 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 24 games
71%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
RESPECT · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
70%

Team Spirit

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 28 games
54%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 21 game
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 19 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mira · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 15 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 276 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 452 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
321 picks · 310 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
316 picks · 366 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 420 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 467 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
294 picks · 512 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total55% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:28
1w Team 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
50% · 73 games50% · 262 games
LunaSatanic
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
53% · 223 games44% · 99 games
Void SpiritLarl
Void Spirit
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
51% · 126 games52% · 320 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderRESPECT
53% · 277 games47% · 208 games
TuskMiposhka
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark Willowswedenstrong
50% · 190 games
Game 2prediction missed21:28
1w Team 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMunkushi~
57% · 232 games50% · 264 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
54% · 194 games51% · 368 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
50% · 182 games49% · 311 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark Willowswedenstrong
53% · 184 games38% · 130 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
53% · 281 game
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 55%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2