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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dark Horseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
zzq · 14 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
7e · 14 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 12 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
poyoyo · 12 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
BEYOND · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
40%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ponlo · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
BEYOND · 9 games
56%

Dark Horse

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sheep · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sheep · 6 games
83%
Pudge
Pudge
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
sheep · 3 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
sheep · 3 games
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Undyne_ · 3 games
67%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Undyne_ · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 276 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 453 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
322 picks · 311 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
318 picks · 368 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
307 picks · 415 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 466 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
292 picks · 510 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Dark Horse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:23
Team Zero 65%Dark Horse 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherpoyoyo
57% · 27 games50% · 132 games
PuckEcho
Puck
Doom
DoomBEYOND
52% · 101 game44% · 104 games
Dark Willowsheep
Dark Willow
Invoker
Invoker7e
56% · 89 games44% · 115 games
TuskUndyne_
Tusk
Mirana
Miranazzq
46% · 107 games
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPyw
64% · 27 games
Game 2prediction correct25:12
Team Zero 63%Dark Horse 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 34:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunapoyoyo
55% · 157 games53% · 269 games
PuckEcho
Puck
Sniper
Sniper7e
43% · 78 games49% · 185 games
Snapfiresheep
Snapfire
Pangolier
PangolierBEYOND
44% · 207 games53% · 222 games
TuskUndyne_
Tusk
Mirana
MiranaPyw
48% · 112 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkzzq
51% · 122 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 76%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2