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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 11 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 10 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 9 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
23savage · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 7 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 7 games
57%

Talon Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 16 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 11 games
82%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Ws · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 10 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ws · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 276 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 453 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
322 picks · 311 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
318 picks · 368 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
307 picks · 415 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 466 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
292 picks · 510 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:25
Aurora Gaming 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTA2000
53% · 155 games50% · 230 games
LunaAkashi
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
56% · 158 games55% · 69 games
EarthshakerMikoto
Earthshaker
Pangolier
PangolierJabz
47% · 339 games49% · 236 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQ
50% · 74 games49% · 200 games
ClockwerkKuku
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaori
50% · 299 games43% · 290 games
EnchantressJhocam
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed40:8
Aurora Gaming 50%Talon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 46:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaTA2000
44% · 115 games51% · 92 games
Shadow FiendAkashi
Shadow Fiend
Sand King
Sand KingAbed
47% · 76 games57% · 188 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
48% · 195 games55% · 227 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsJabz
51% · 145 games47% · 59 games
BristlebackKuku
Bristleback
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQ
46% · 186 games52% · 151 game
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed21:24
Aurora Gaming 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerTA2000
46% · 172 games58% · 73 games
BristlebackAkashi
Bristleback
Kunkka
KunkkaJabz
46% · 188 games50% · 319 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Tiny
TinyAbed
44% · 227 games50% · 392 games
MarsWs
Mars
Batrider
BatriderQ
50% · 244 games59% · 69 games
VisageKuku
Visage
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
47% · 159 games52% · 137 games
SniperJhocam
Sniper
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 56%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3