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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Allianceloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 24 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 20 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 19 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 19 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ari · 17 games
59%

Alliance

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 22 games
55%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 21 game
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 18 games
61%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
53%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 275 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 454 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 310 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
317 picks · 368 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
304 picks · 413 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 464 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
290 picks · 508 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:34
OG 64%Alliance 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by Alliance in 1:05:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristleback23savage
64% · 77 games50% · 262 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Invoker
InvokerNine
46% · 135 games51% · 161 game
MiranaNande
Mirana
Kunkka
KunkkaWisper
41% · 266 games45% · 48 games
ViperPalantimos
Viper
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCeb
55% · 298 games47% · 308 games
Centaur WarrunnerdEsire
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
50% · 207 games50% · 204 games
EnchantressKidaro
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct26:26
OG 62%Alliance 38%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa23savage
43% · 106 games50% · 225 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Magnus
MagnusWisper
50% · 105 games53% · 198 games
DoomPalantimos
Doom
Zeus
ZeusNine
45% · 93 games48% · 42 games
EarthshakerMo13ei
Earthshaker
Batrider
BatriderAri
50% · 226 games54% · 215 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskCeb
52% · 165 games48% · 15 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct28:10
OG 66%Alliance 34%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windranger23savage
48% · 216 games50% · 247 games
Dragon KnightNande
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsWisper
47% · 223 games54% · 44 games
VisagePalantimos
Visage
Invoker
InvokerNine
52% · 94 games52% · 334 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCeb
54% · 190 games46% · 110 games
MarcidEsire
Marci
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
52% · 29 games39% · 17 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 77%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3