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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dark Horsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hara · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hara · 6 games
33%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 4 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Manic · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 3 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
TK · 3 games
33%

Dark Horse

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sheep · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sheep · 6 games
83%
Pudge
Pudge
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
sheep · 3 games
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Undyne_ · 3 games
67%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Undyne_ · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sheep · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
329 picks · 274 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
328 picks · 311 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 456 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 371 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
302 picks · 411 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 462 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
290 picks · 502 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Dark Horse
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total53% Dark Horse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:36
Spiky Gaming 48%Dark Horse 52%
The model gave 52% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 37:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetManic
53% · 92 games46% · 183 games
TimbersawEcho
Timbersaw
Puck
PuckGaN-
55% · 114 games56% · 106 games
Naga SirenUndyne_
Naga Siren
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit生死
45% · 35 games51% · 154 games
Grimstrokesheep
Grimstroke
Morphling
MorphlingTK
43% · 124 games
Snapfire
SnapfireHara
47% · 78 games
Game 2prediction missed48:13
Spiky Gaming 47%Dark Horse 53%
The model gave 53% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightManic
56% · 74 games59% · 100 games
InvokerEcho
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritGaN-
42% · 47 games49% · 83 games
Naga SirenUndyne_
Naga Siren
Marci
Marci生死
45% · 43 games48% · 124 games
Dark Willowsheep
Dark Willow
Snapfire
SnapfireTK
43% · 88 games
Sniper
SniperHara
52% · 55 games
Game 3prediction correct13:30
Spiky Gaming 49%Dark Horse 51%
The model gave 51% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidManic
55% · 92 games49% · 104 games
Monkey KingEcho
Monkey King
Kunkka
Kunkka生死
50% · 137 games48% · 187 games
TuskUndyne_
Tusk
Void Spirit
Void SpiritGaN-
48% · 36 games53% · 142 games
Dark Willowsheep
Dark Willow
Snapfire
SnapfireTK
48% · 95 games
Sniper
SniperHara
51% · 73 games
Model check result
Model favoriteDark Horse · 53%
Series resultDark Horse 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3