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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Essenceloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 20 games
35%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 19 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 19 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 17 games
35%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Matthew · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkMago · 16 games
31%

Team Essence

Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Varizh · 3 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 2 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dalul · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
db- · 1 game
0%
Magnus
Magnus
db- · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
45%
Rubick
Rubick
328 picks · 311 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 274 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 455 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 371 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
300 picks · 411 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 460 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
290 picks · 498 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 46%
Hero pool strength63% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:2
BOOM Esports 71%Team Essence 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 26:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerGhost
46% · 93 games47% · 57 games
Visagedb-
Visage
Sand King
Sand KingMac
58% · 34 games52% · 118 games
Marcidalul
Marci
Enigma
EnigmaFbz
57% · 37 games52% · 150 games
MiranaVarizh
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTims
51% · 89 games
Snapfire
SnapfireDJ
39% · 72 games
Game 2prediction correct50:19
BOOM Esports 74%Team Essence 26%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaGhost
60% · 75 games48% · 195 games
Windrangerdb-
Windranger
Monkey King
Monkey KingMac
51% · 74 games40% · 120 games
Ember Spiritdalul
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomFbz
57% · 106 games44% · 99 games
ZeusVarizh
Zeus
Naga Siren
Naga SirenDJ
58% · 65 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTims
52% · 94 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 85%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2