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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dark Horsewin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dark Horse

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sheep · 6 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sheep · 5 games
20%
Pudge
Pudge
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
sheep · 3 games
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Undyne_ · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sheep · 3 games
33%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Undyne_ · 3 games
67%

Team Bright

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Tz. · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
17%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
TK · 3 games
33%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
TK · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
TK · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
45%
Rubick
Rubick
328 picks · 311 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 274 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 455 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 371 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
300 picks · 411 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 460 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
290 picks · 498 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Dark Horse
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total51% Dark Horse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
Dark Horse 51%Team Bright 49%
The model gave 51% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 22:21.
Game 2prediction correct39:18
Dark Horse 51%Team Bright 49%
The model gave 51% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 24:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteDark Horse · 51%
Series resultDark Horse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2