DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MMousesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Crystal Maidensignature
YamSun · 8 games
Dark Willow
Bignum · 8 games
Enigmasignature
Fayde · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Speeed · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 7 games
Mouses
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
Rubick
327 picks · 311 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 452 bans
Hoodwink
321 picks · 371 bans
Windranger
296 picks · 407 bans
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 459 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 496 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:8
Apex Genesis 85%Mouses 15%
The model gave 85% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 21:38.
Game 2prediction correct27:6
Apex Genesis 85%Mouses 15%
The model gave 85% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 19:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 85%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2