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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 20 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Skem · 12 games
58%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 10 games
80%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
22%

GRIN esports

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Moo · 4 games
25%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Moo · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 2 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Moo · 2 games
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Moo · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Lodine · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
45%
Rubick
Rubick
327 picks · 311 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
324 picks · 271 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 452 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 371 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
296 picks · 407 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 459 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
286 picks · 496 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:30
Shopify Rebellion 91%GRIN esports 9%
The model gave 91% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 35:30.
Game 2prediction correct33:11
Shopify Rebellion 91%GRIN esports 9%
The model gave 91% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 21:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 91%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2