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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Palianytsiawin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Palianytsia

Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 7 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
QBFY · 5 games
80%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Crystallize · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
kreker · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 4 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 3 games
67%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 34 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
pma · 22 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 21 game
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Daze · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
45%
Rubick
Rubick
325 picks · 311 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 452 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
323 picks · 271 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 371 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
295 picks · 406 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
292 picks · 459 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
286 picks · 496 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:19
Palianytsia 45%Natus Vincere Junior 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 48:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallize
48% · 203 games57% · 79 games
Broodmotherpma
Broodmother
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoonlight
46% · 59 games55% · 249 games
Windrangergotthejuice
Windranger
Doom
DoomfortniteMan
48% · 186 games49% · 296 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickQBFY
40% · 278 games48% · 210 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Clockwerk
Clockwerkkreker
46% · 177 games65% · 69 games
OmniknightRiddys
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct8:37
Palianytsia 45%Natus Vincere Junior 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 29:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallize
52% · 273 games55% · 189 games
Lunagotthejuice
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
52% · 147 games53% · 183 games
Kunkkapma
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterfortniteMan
46% · 107 games52% · 121 game
Monkey KingNiku
Monkey King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
52% · 252 games44% · 170 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
39% · 51 game52% · 167 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 3prediction missed32:10
Palianytsia 49%Natus Vincere Junior 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallize
49% · 325 games51% · 307 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
55% · 182 games53% · 259 games
Kunkkapma
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
48% · 474 games51% · 242 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
44% · 254 games41% · 310 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Omniknight
Omniknightkreker
58% · 75 games54% · 192 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 58%
Series resultPalianytsia 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3