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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 15 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 11 games
82%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Stormstormer · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SoNNeikO · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
SoNNeikO · 8 games
75%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 9 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Batyuk · 9 games
22%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 8 games
13%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
45%
Rubick
Rubick
325 picks · 311 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 271 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 452 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
320 picks · 371 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
294 picks · 405 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
292 picks · 458 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
285 picks · 495 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 55%
Hero pool strength64% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:21
AVULUS 70%Passion UA 30%
The model gave 70% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerSmiling Knight
49% · 224 games45% · 233 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierXibbe
49% · 321 game48% · 203 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Mirana
MiranaEkki
63% · 123 games43% · 290 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStormstormer
58% · 181 game42% · 219 games
Enchantressflacko
Enchantress
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSoNNeikO
59% · 96 games
Game 2prediction correct37:8
AVULUS 68%Passion UA 32%
The model gave 68% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 26:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
51% · 47 games46% · 127 games
Razorniche
Razor
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
50% · 91 game47% · 333 games
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierXibbe
49% · 272 games49% · 153 games
SnapfireFernans
Snapfire
Mirana
MiranaEkki
50% · 161 game59% · 130 games
Naga Sirenflacko
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskSoNNeikO
49% · 172 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 80%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2