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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cuyes Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 24 games
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 22 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Scofield · 21 game
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
38%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 15 games
53%

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 10 games
80%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mjz · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Parker · 4 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Mnz · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
45%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 309 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 452 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
319 picks · 371 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
319 picks · 269 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
292 picks · 455 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
289 picks · 403 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
282 picks · 491 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
Heroic 54%Cuyes Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 23:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendParker
55% · 41 game44% · 84 games
AlchemistCostabile
Alchemist
Mars
MarsDavai
55% · 214 games41% · 64 games
Void SpiritPiPi
Void Spirit
Invoker
Invoker4nalog
50% · 97 games49% · 209 games
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireScofield
53% · 109 games46% · 145 games
EnchantressPanda
Enchantress
Omniknight
OmniknightKJ
61% · 41 game
Game 2prediction missed41:14
Heroic 49%Cuyes Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingParker
53% · 95 games50% · 246 games
WeaverCostabile
Weaver
Sniper
Sniper4nalog
43% · 67 games51% · 179 games
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
47% · 244 games51% · 245 games
KunkkaILICH-
Kunkka
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKJ
52% · 89 games62% · 54 games
OmniknightPanda
Omniknight
Rubick
RubickScofield
43% · 229 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 55%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2