DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Advance Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 17 games
Clockwerksignature
GH · 15 games
Dark Willow
GH · 13 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 12 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 10 games
Rubick
SumaiL · 10 games
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 10 games
Advance Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Rubick
323 picks · 309 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 452 bans
Hoodwink
319 picks · 371 bans
Snapfire
319 picks · 269 bans
Dragon Knight
292 picks · 455 bans
Windranger
289 picks · 403 bans
Enchantress
282 picks · 491 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:3
Nigma Galaxy 93%Advance Esports 7%
The model gave 93% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 16:56.
Game 2prediction correct30:5
Nigma Galaxy 93%Advance Esports 7%
The model gave 93% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 18:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 93%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2