DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DTdifference teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 26 games
Miranasignature
Lelis · 20 games
Rubick
Lelis · 20 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 20 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 18 games
Tinysignature
Copy · 18 games
difference team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Rubick
324 picks · 309 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 454 bans
Hoodwink
319 picks · 372 bans
Snapfire
318 picks · 269 bans
Dragon Knight
293 picks · 454 bans
Windranger
290 picks · 403 bans
Enchantress
282 picks · 490 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:6
nouns 97%difference team 3%
The model gave 97% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 20:58.
Game 2prediction correct13:35
nouns 97%difference team 3%
The model gave 97% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 22:00.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 97%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2