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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Palianytsialoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 17 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 13 games
31%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 12 games
33%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 12 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 11 games
73%

Palianytsia

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 7 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 7 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
QBFY · 5 games
80%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Crystallize · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
kreker · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 4 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
324 picks · 309 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 454 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
319 picks · 372 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
317 picks · 269 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
292 picks · 454 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
290 picks · 403 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
282 picks · 490 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
One Move 53%Palianytsia 47%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Palianytsia.
Game 2prediction correct18:18
One Move 54%Palianytsia 46%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWoE
53% · 331 game41% · 148 games
LinaCrystallize
Lina
Doom
DoomSSS
51% · 223 games48% · 344 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Timbersaw
TimbersawDifference
51% · 244 games56% · 138 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Mirana
Mirananot me
54% · 180 games47% · 156 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Omniknight
OmniknightRein
55% · 49 games44% · 241 game
Clockwerkkreker
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct23:22
One Move 52%Palianytsia 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 30:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWoE
50% · 139 games43% · 117 games
MiranaCrystallize
Mirana
Visage
VisageSSS
57% · 32 games55% · 44 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Dazzle
DazzleDifference
43% · 17 games54% · 69 games
SniperMoonlight
Sniper
Tusk
Tusknot me
51% · 126 games46% · 104 games
SnapfireQBFY
Snapfire
Marci
MarciRein
57% · 86 games44% · 66 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 53%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3