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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 33 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 25 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 24 games
63%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 23 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
70%

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 17 games
41%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 15 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 12 games
33%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 12 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 12 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 453 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
325 picks · 314 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 374 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
316 picks · 268 bans
54%
Windranger
Windranger
290 picks · 403 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 454 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
283 picks · 487 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total80% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:26
1w Team 68%One Move 32%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
45% · 113 games51% · 214 games
LunaWoE
Luna
Visage
VisageCloud
48% · 48 games49% · 63 games
Queen of PainDifference
Queen of Pain
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
54% · 158 games52% · 71 game
UnderlordSSS
Underlord
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
49% · 76 games47% · 74 games
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Batrider
BatriderRESPECT
49% · 212 games56% · 185 games
Dark Willownot me
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed4:26
1w Team 67%One Move 33%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by One Move in 29:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetChira JUNIOR
51% · 69 games44% · 185 games
GyrocopterWoE
Gyrocopter
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
44% · 86 games52% · 58 games
Queen of PainDifference
Queen of Pain
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
47% · 142 games56% · 64 games
AlchemistSSS
Alchemist
Leshrac
Leshracswedenstrong
51% · 101 game51% · 98 games
Marcinot me
Marci
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
58% · 62 games50% · 55 games
OmniknightRein
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct31:6
1w Team 68%One Move 32%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
48% · 266 games45% · 232 games
GyrocopterWoE
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
58% · 191 game53% · 141 game
AlchemistSSS
Alchemist
Viper
ViperCloud
45% · 59 games54% · 243 games
TimbersawDifference
Timbersaw
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
48% · 206 games47% · 206 games
Dark Willownot me
Dark Willow
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
44% · 175 games57% · 75 games
BristlebackRein
Bristleback
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 80%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3