DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BBandaNoonewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 28 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Snapfire
Mira · 17 games
Rubick
Mira · 15 games
BandaNoone
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Rubick
331 picks · 317 bans
Hoodwink
326 picks · 378 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 459 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 267 bans
Dragon Knight
290 picks · 448 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 477 bans
Windranger
284 picks · 404 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% BandaNoone
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Team Spirit 40%BandaNoone 60%
The model gave 60% on BandaNoone — the game was taken by BandaNoone in 32:15.
Game 2prediction missed11:17
Team Spirit 40%BandaNoone 60%
The model gave 60% on BandaNoone — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 27:43.
Game 3prediction correct22:37
Team Spirit 40%BandaNoone 60%
The model gave 60% on BandaNoone — the game was taken by BandaNoone in 38:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteBandaNoone · 60%
Series resultBandaNoone 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3