DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dark Horseloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Zero
Clockwerk
zzq · 12 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
7e · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 11 games
Windrangersignature
poyoyo · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
Phoenixsignature
zzq · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Ponlo · 8 games
Dark Horse
Hoodwinksignature
sheep · 6 games
Dark Willow
sheep · 3 games
Iooften banned
sheep · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Undyne_ · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 3 games
Pudge
Undyne_ · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
sheep · 3 games
Witch Doctoroften banned
Undyne_ · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Rubick
330 picks · 317 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 458 bans
Hoodwink
325 picks · 378 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 264 bans
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 446 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 474 bans
Sven
283 picks · 297 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Dark Horse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:12
Team Zero 65%Dark Horse 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapoyoyo
KunkkaEcho
TimbersawBEYOND
Dark Willowsheep
Invoker7e
PudgeUndyne_
RubickPyw
Naga Sirenzzq
Game 2prediction correct31:17
Team Zero 64%Dark Horse 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangerpoyoyo
Keeper of the LightEcho
TimbersawBEYOND
Dark Willowsheep
Tusk7e
OmniknightUndyne_
HoodwinkPyw
Faceless Voidzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 78%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2