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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 10 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 9 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 7 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 7 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%

BOOM Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 20 games
35%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 19 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 19 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
35%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Matthew · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 259 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
330 picks · 317 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
325 picks · 378 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 458 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 263 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 446 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
284 picks · 475 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
283 picks · 297 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Aurora Gaming 72%BOOM Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Aurora Gaming 72%BOOM Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 72%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2