European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
4ikibamboniwin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4ikibamboni
No games played over 6 months.
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Void Spirit
niche · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 6 games
Primal Beast
Norma · 5 games
Tiny
xsvampire · 5 games
Warlock
Undyne_ · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
614 picks · 384 bans
Rubick
504 picks · 278 bans
Phoenix
500 picks · 586 bans
Tiny
478 picks · 397 bans
Pangolier
415 picks · 578 bans
Puck
355 picks · 957 bans
Beastmaster
340 picks · 888 bans
Tusk
340 picks · 285 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% 4ikibamboni
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
4ikibamboni 37%Ilbirs eSports 63%
The model gave 63% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni.
Game 2prediction missed
4ikibamboni 37%Ilbirs eSports 63%
The model gave 63% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni.
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 63%
Series result4ikibamboni 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2