?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hive-loss 0:2
series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hive-

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
slimeyao · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
slimeyao · 5 games
20%
Rubick
Rubick
slimeyao · 5 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
byun · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantress
kur0patbI4 · 4 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 4 games
25%
Chen
Chenoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 3 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
byun · 2 games
100%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 34 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 33 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 29 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 26 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 26 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 26 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
614 picks · 384 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
504 picks · 278 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
500 picks · 586 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
478 picks · 397 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
415 picks · 578 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 957 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
340 picks · 888 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 285 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hive- 9%Zero Tenacity 91%
The model gave 91% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 2prediction correct
Hive- 9%Zero Tenacity 91%
The model gave 91% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 91%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2