DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Dark Seeroften banned
Moo · 4 games
Disruptor
Lodine · 4 games
Axeoften banned
Moo · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Moo · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Moo · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 1 game
TiltedBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
347 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
330 picks · 317 bans
Hoodwink
325 picks · 378 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 458 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 263 bans
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 445 bans
Enchantress
284 picks · 475 bans
Sven
283 picks · 297 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total52% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:9
GRIN esports 48%TiltedBoys 52%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 30:19.
Game 2prediction missed49:8
GRIN esports 48%TiltedBoys 52%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 26:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 52%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2