DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionMMouseswin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DTdifference teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mouses
No games played over 6 months.
difference team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
347 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
330 picks · 317 bans
Hoodwink
325 picks · 378 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 458 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 263 bans
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 445 bans
Enchantress
284 picks · 475 bans
Sven
283 picks · 297 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Mouses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% difference team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:18
Mouses 43%difference team 57%
The model gave 57% on difference team — the game was taken by difference team in 34:50.
Game 2prediction missed39:25
Mouses 43%difference team 57%
The model gave 57% on difference team — the game was taken by Mouses in 35:25.
Game 3prediction missed29:23
Mouses 43%difference team 57%
The model gave 57% on difference team — the game was taken by Mouses in 28:46.
Model check result
Model favoritedifference team · 57%
Series resultMouses 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3