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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Palianytsiawin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Palianytsia

Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
kreker · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 3 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
kreker · 3 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
QBFY · 2 games
100%

Passion UA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 8 games
13%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 8 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fernans · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 259 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
332 picks · 321 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
326 picks · 379 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 463 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
313 picks · 262 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 444 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
283 picks · 477 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
283 picks · 299 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:29
Palianytsia 50%Passion UA 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 56:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallize
49% · 219 games48% · 77 games
Medusayowaai
Medusa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoonlight
51% · 82 games49% · 186 games
Storm Spiritniche
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
47% · 335 games50% · 291 game
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
56% · 230 games46% · 200 games
MiranaFernans
Mirana
Marci
Marcikreker
52% · 96 games52% · 208 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct
Palianytsia 47%Passion UA 53%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Game 3prediction correct33:24
Palianytsia 51%Passion UA 49%
The model gave 51% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 50:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallize
46% · 189 games46% · 267 games
Dragon Knightyowaai
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
57% · 37 games49% · 100 games
Invokerniche
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
51% · 206 games47% · 196 games
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Tusk
Tuskkreker
45% · 146 games50% · 89 games
SniperFernans
Sniper
Leshrac
LeshracQBFY
54% · 125 games60% · 51 game
Omniknightflacko
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 53%
Series resultPalianytsia 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3