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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Night Pulseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 13 games
77%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
69%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 13 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 10 games
80%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Stormstormer · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 8 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
SoNNeikO · 8 games
88%

Night Pulse

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 23 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 21 game
48%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 19 games
68%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Kami · 18 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
59%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 17 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 259 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
332 picks · 324 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
330 picks · 380 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 468 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
313 picks · 262 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 447 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
285 picks · 477 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
285 picks · 299 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
AVULUS 59%Night Pulse 41%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 24:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
54% · 63 games55% · 201 game
WindrangerV-Tune
Windranger
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStormstormer
38% · 59 games50% · 167 games
DoomKami
Doom
Kunkka
KunkkaXibbe
50% · 202 games57% · 105 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Tusk
TuskSoNNeikO
48% · 156 games46% · 117 games
Leshracsayuw
Leshrac
Batrider
BatriderEkki
50% · 254 games52% · 144 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct
AVULUS 66%Night Pulse 34%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 66%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2