DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
500 Bananasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 21 game
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 20 games
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 19 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Matthew · 16 games
500 Bananas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
347 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
341 picks · 329 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 472 bans
Snapfire
313 picks · 265 bans
Dragon Knight
290 picks · 445 bans
Sven
289 picks · 300 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 475 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:7
BOOM Esports 88%500 Bananas 12%
The model gave 88% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 23:43.
Game 2prediction correct43:16
BOOM Esports 88%500 Bananas 12%
The model gave 88% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 23:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 88%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2