DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 0:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TNTeam NeatlTVwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ASAKURA
No games played over 6 months.
Team NeatlTV
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
343 picks · 331 bans
Hoodwink
337 picks · 387 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 483 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 266 bans
Sven
290 picks · 303 bans
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 446 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 474 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ASAKURA 54%Team NeatlTV 46%
The model gave 54% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Team NeatlTV.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 54%
Series resultTeam NeatlTV 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1