DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
DMSwin 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Stormloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DMS
Batridersignature
aik · 10 games
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 8 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
Naga Sirensignature
prblms · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
Team Storm
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
343 picks · 331 bans
Hoodwink
337 picks · 387 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 483 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 266 bans
Sven
290 picks · 303 bans
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 446 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 474 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
DMS 79%Team Storm 21%
The model gave 79% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS.
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 79%
Series resultDMS 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1