DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blade breakersloss 0:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Fart Studioswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blade breakers
No games played over 6 months.
Fart Studios
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
349 picks · 330 bans
Hoodwink
340 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 489 bans
Snapfire
302 picks · 264 bans
Sven
290 picks · 303 bans
Windranger
285 picks · 392 bans
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 453 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Blade breakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Blade breakers 39%Fart Studios 61%
The model gave 61% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios.
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 61%
Series resultFart Studios 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1