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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Hryvnialoss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
42%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 10 games
10%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%

Team Hryvnia

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 259 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
350 picks · 333 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
344 picks · 399 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 492 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
302 picks · 264 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
290 picks · 304 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
286 picks · 395 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 455 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:25
Dragon Esports 55%Team Hryvnia 45%
The model gave 55% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 43:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetlil pleb
42% · 32 games48% · 170 games
Morphlingpaw
Morphling
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
44% · 30 games
Enigma
EnigmaInfernal
61% · 27 games
Mirana
Miranaarmageddon
58% · 32 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMary_y
55% · 49 games
Game 2prediction correct31:13
Dragon Esports 52%Team Hryvnia 48%
The model gave 52% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistlil pleb
42% · 29 games49% · 140 games
Lunapaw
Luna
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdualrazee
57% · 17 games
Underlord
UnderlordInfernal
75% · 4 games
Mirana
Miranaarmageddon
50% · 46 games
Tusk
TuskMary_y
50% · 44 games
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 59%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2