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DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DMSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 12 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 11 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 11 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
20%

DMS

Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 10 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 6 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
prblms · 5 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
351 picks · 336 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 259 bans
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
347 picks · 401 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 496 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
300 picks · 264 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
292 picks · 305 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
284 picks · 396 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 455 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:21
One Move 54%DMS 46%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 50:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWoE
50% · 233 games45% · 214 games
WindrangerShigetsu
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
49% · 169 games48% · 246 games
Puckmellojul
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
52% · 338 games42% · 139 games
RazorDaxak
Razor
Techies
Techiesnot me
51% · 181 game55% · 115 games
Naga Sirenprblms
Naga Siren
Omniknight
OmniknightRein
63% · 43 games52% · 250 games
Enchantressaik
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct32:21
One Move 56%DMS 44%
The model gave 56% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 40:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackWoE
51% · 41 game49% · 86 games
AlchemistShigetsu
Alchemist
Doom
DoomSSS
49% · 140 games52% · 159 games
Primal Beastmellojul
Primal Beast
Sand King
Sand KingDifference
51% · 51 game52% · 67 games
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Snapfire
Snapfirenot me
46% · 96 games45% · 47 games
Techiesaik
Techies
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRein
57% · 31 gamelittle data
Rikiprblms
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 56%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2