?
arrow_backBack to match
BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 24 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 23 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 19 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 19 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 40 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 38 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 35 games
60%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 35 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 33 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
bengan · 25 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
NARMAN · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 259 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 336 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
345 picks · 401 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 496 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
296 picks · 264 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
292 picks · 305 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
283 picks · 392 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 454 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total73% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
OG 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windranger23savage
51% · 289 games45% · 55 games
Shadow FiendUlnit
Shadow Fiend
Sniper
SniperNine
53% · 96 games50% · 202 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Magnus
MagnusWisper
54% · 159 games48% · 220 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCeb
51% · 127 games52% · 106 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
55% · 56 games41% · 144 games
Tuskbengan
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed25:34
OG 63%MOUZ 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Luna23savage
52% · 184 games53% · 41 game
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderNine
49% · 219 games45% · 213 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsWisper
56% · 134 games50% · 92 games
Monkey KingSupream^
Monkey King
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
51% · 37 games47% · 270 games
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
Io
IoCeb
51% · 61 game52% · 19 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction missed22:35
OG 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by MOUZ in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Luna23savage
53% · 229 games46% · 115 games
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNine
51% · 51 game50% · 251 game
Dragon KnightSupream^
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomWisper
55% · 232 games46% · 238 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
58% · 129 games34% · 27 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Enchantress
EnchantressCeb
51% · 246 games47% · 256 games
HoodwinkNARMAN
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 73%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3