BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LFLooking for Orgwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Skem · 11 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
Brewmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
Jakiro
Skem · 8 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Sacred · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
358 picks · 345 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 405 bans
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 507 bans
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 263 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 387 bans
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 459 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:8
Shopify Rebellion 55%Looking for Org 45%
The model gave 55% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetTimado
MedusaMnz
Doommangekyou
MarsDarkMago
InvokerYopaj
KunkkaSacred
Dark WillowHellscream
WindrangerMatthew
Naga SirenSkem
OmniknightYadomi
Game 2prediction missed22:36
Shopify Rebellion 54%Looking for Org 46%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 43:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckYopaj
WindrangerMnz
Shadow FiendTimado
KunkkaDarkMago
Sand Kingmangekyou
DoomSacred
Dark WillowHellscream
SnapfireMatthew
MarciSkem
OmniknightYadomi
Game 3prediction missed12:26
Shopify Rebellion 56%Looking for Org 44%
The model gave 56% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistTimado
GyrocopterMnz
Sand Kingmangekyou
TinyDarkMago
InvokerYopaj
SlardarSacred
Skywrath MageHellscream
SnapfireMatthew
EnchantressSkem
OmniknightYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 62%
Series resultLooking for Org 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3