?
arrow_backBack to match
BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 13 games
77%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 12 games
75%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 12 games
75%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 9 games
89%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
SoNNeikO · 8 games
88%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 8 games
75%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 40 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 38 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 35 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 34 games
68%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 34 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 29 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
bengan · 26 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
358 picks · 345 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
354 picks · 405 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 507 bans
49%
Sven
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
293 picks · 263 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
280 picks · 387 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 459 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 39%
Hero pool strength58% AVULUS
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total70% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:34
AVULUS 63%MOUZ 37%
The model gave 63% on AVULUS — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerSmiling Knight
50% · 140 games42% · 43 games
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Sniper
SniperStormstormer
52% · 67 games48% · 311 games
Dragon KnightSupream^
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaXibbe
54% · 114 games50% · 105 games
Sand KingForce
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
53% · 179 games58% · 38 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
51% · 161 game46% · 164 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed19:35
AVULUS 62%MOUZ 38%
The model gave 62% on AVULUS — the game was taken by MOUZ in 50:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
51% · 52 games57% · 107 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Puck
PuckStormstormer
55% · 210 games53% · 180 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaXibbe
52% · 98 games41% · 14 games
RikiSupream^
Riki
Tusk
TuskEkki
42% · 164 games50% · 180 games
LunaNARMAN
Luna
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
45% · 168 games46% · 211 games
Phoenixbengan
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 70%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2