RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bushido
Earth Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Covisnine · 3 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
Mirana
jAMES · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Covisnine · 2 games
Windrangeroften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
358 picks · 345 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 405 bans
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 507 bans
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 263 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 387 bans
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 459 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Bushido
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Bushido
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Bushido 53%Dragon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Bushido — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusarostislav_999
Morphlinglil pleb
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Huskardualrazee
PuckDodren
EnigmaInfernal
MiranajAMES
Marciarmageddon
45% · 179 games
EnchantressMary_y
Game 2prediction correct38:26
Bushido 55%Dragon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Bushido — the game was taken by Bushido in 46:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linarostislav_999
Morphlinglil pleb
Void SpiritDodren
KunkkaInfernal
Night StalkerCovisnine
Invokerdualrazee
MiranajAMES
Winter Wyvernarmageddon
53% · 131 game
RubickMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2