DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 1:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:0
NN3X7loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
N3X7
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
357 picks · 344 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 406 bans
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 508 bans
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 262 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 387 bans
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% N3X7
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% N3X7
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Dragon Esports 33%N3X7 67%
The model gave 67% on N3X7 — the game was taken by Dragon Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteN3X7 · 67%
Series resultDragon Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1